The first and last time I ever voted in an election in Nigeria was in 1979. Ironically it was the military regime of General Olushegun Obasanjo who gave my generation (the independence kids) our first opportunity to exercise our voting rights as young adults. The military had overthrown the first civilian administration in 1966 and had retained power through more coups and counter-coups for thirteen years (nine of which were spent by General Yakubu Gowon including the three years of bloody civil war to ‘Keep Nigeria One’, 1967-1970) until the Obasanjo regime returned the country to ‘democratic rule’ in 1979.

That election, like previous elections in Nigeria’s short lived experience of democracy as an independent country (1960-1966), was marred by violence, brazen irregularities, extreme polarization and allegations of official and unofficial bias in favour of the five registered parties. The military regime was not seen by many as an impartial observer. Their alleged partiality was not unfamiliar because even under British colonial overlordship elections were rigged or tilted in favour of particular groups, regions, or ethnic interests amenable to British neo-colonialist designs. Therefore, the British were never neutral about who succeeded them whether in Nigeria, Uganda or Kenya; although they miscalculated in some cases, most famously in Ghana with the emergence of Nkrumah and the CPP. Nigeria’s 1979 Presidential election and a majority of the Governorships at the state level and also the National Parliament, were ‘won’ by the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), whose presidential candidate, a northern Hausa-Fulani Muslim, ex-School Master and former Minister, Alhaji Shehu Usman Aliyu Shagari became the President. The closest rival to Shagari and the NPN was a veteran Politician, an Ijebu-Yoruba Methodist from the South West, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN).

The Chief came from the same state, Ogun, as Obasanjo but he and his fanatical supporters- predominantly among the Yoruba- accused Obasanjo of ‘betraying the Yoruba’ and being ‘an agent of the Hausa-Fulani Feudalist North’. Since Lagos is the centre of Nigeria’s financial, industrial and commercial activities, and the Yoruba had historically had hegemony over the media, both Obasanjo and Shagari were pilloried, abused and put under siege in the federal capital which was under the UPN. The chief- himself a very successful lawyer- gathered together a formidable team and took his election petition against the electoral commission, the military government and the NPN up to the Supreme Court but the highest court decided against him. The election of Shagari stood. By 1983 the Shagari Government/NPN was in charge of the elections themselves. Not only did Shagari win in a ‘landslide’ across the country, but in his home state, Sokoto, he had more votes than the total population of the state! So brazen was the NPN manipulation of the votes that even Chief Awolowo, a very litigious and cantankerous ‘Old Man’ in Nigerian politics, unrivalled up to now, did not feel the need to go to court again. He thought it a waste of time, and instead gave up the case to God and public opinion. Less than four months after those controversial elections in December 1983 the civilian regime was overthrown in yet another military coup and General Muhammadu Buhari (he is, without any sense of irony, a leading Presidential candidate today) became the military head of state.

The military remained in power for another 16 years until 1999 when the country again ‘returned’ to civilian rule under a ‘civilianized’ Obasanjo. So the story of democracy in Nigeria has become one long journey from Obasanjo to Obasanjo!

The General is again at the threshold of another historic transition in Nigeria. He was the first military leader to handover to an elected civilian President and if all goes as well as possible, in spite of the current uncertainties, on May 29 2007 Obasanjo will become the first ‘elected’ president to peacefully handover to another elected president.

Less than three weeks before the elections the omens do not seem to be good. There are two sets of problems even though one has received greater media space than the other, which may be more important. The first set are political issues related to the reluctance and very active resistance of Obasanjo to leave office (the third term prolongation manouevers as Nigerians call them but which Ugandans will be more familiar with as ‘sad term’ or ‘Ekisanja’) and the credibility deficit that this has brought on to his legacy and the public perception of the transition processes. The worst consequence of the checkmated futile term extension is of course the Vice President, Atiku Abubakar and his desperate struggles to be on the ballot, and Obasanjo’s blatant ‘do or die’ stratagems to block him.

The other set of problems concern the level of technical, administrative and organizational preparedness of the Electoral Commission (it is aspirationally called an Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC!) It pleads readiness but the average Nigerian believes otherwise and the evidence on the ground does not inspire much confidence. Many of the challenges could actually be technical incompetence, but so divided is the public that many think the incompetence is deliberate and orchestrated to create chaos and secure a ‘sad term’ extension for Obasanjo by default!

I do not believe in this conspiracy theory about Obasanjo creating chaos in order to remain in power. There is too much obsession with Obasanjo’s shenanigans, that it is really frustrating to any sane person. Some of his critics are so consumed by their hatred for the man that they even behave, talk and write as though Obasanjo is the worst leader Nigeria has ever had. Yet many of these critics were resounding in their silence while others were active collaborators under the IBB and Abacha dictatorships. A lot of the animosity against Obasanjo is self-earned because of the man’s I-know-best, often very rude public profile. However hatred for Obasanjo should not confuse one to the extent that even if there is no rainfall (or even if there is too much rain!) it could be blamed on the regime. The Atiku supporters or their fellow travelers using this line need to wake up to the stark political realities. Neither Atiku nor Obasanjo will be on the ballot.

Would this be fair to Atiku? Of course not, but what will be new about political injustices by the Nigerian political elite? Chief MKO Abiola won the fairest and freest election ever held in that country but it was annulled and he died in prison .The world did not collapse. The dictator, Babangida, banned fifteen presidential aspirants (some of them ex-Generals including Atiku’s political Godfather, Shehu Musa Yar Adua) and other plutocrats were prevented from standing. The world did not collapse on that occasion either. It will not collapse if Atiku does not stand. Somehow the country will muddle through. There is no military option anymore, therefore Nigerians have to find ways and means of making democracy to mean more than just one set of oppressors and exploiters periodically posing to be their liberators. There are hopeful signs in the growing assertiveness and clear political demands of a new generation of CSO activists who want to deepen the democratic process beyond the donor-driven project cycle and its complimentary protest by per-diem culture.

In spite of all the gathering dark clouds one can hazard very quick guesses. One, Atiku will not be standing and has to be content with enjoying his unlikely victim status and dubious rebranding as a ‘martyr to democracy’, even if he was a chief architect in all the scams and fraud that got Obasanjo elected both in 1999 and 2003. There may not be honor among con-men but the Obasanjo-Atiku saga is a just dessert for both of them. Two, the elections will be marred by all kinds of irregularities including ‘rigging where you would have won’ by all the leading contenders. But finally the ruling class will go back to ‘business as usual’, while the masses continue ‘suffering and smiling‘ as Fela Kuti once sang, in a country where the elite is unashamedly committed to only one ideology: Lootocracy (government of looters, by looters, for looters).

“Forward ever , backward never”…..Kwame Nkrumah (1909 – 1972)

………………………..DON’T AGONISE! ORGANISE!!……………………….

This entry was posted on Thursday, April 5th, 2007 at 11:57 am and is filed under Thursday Postcard. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.