Nigerians go to the polls this Saturday in a very historic even if highly contentious election. It is historic because it will be the first time that an elected government will be handing over to another elected one through universal adult suffrage. It has been highly contentious and has left many people with negative forebodings because of the violence, generalized insecurity and uncertainties that elections unfortunately continue to generate across this continent; as we try to deepen democracy beyond merely ‘voting without choosing’ to making a difference in the way in which we are governed politically, economically and socially.

As with any challenge faced by other African countries, Nigeria’s, by virtue of its size, becomes multiplied several times.

This weekend’s election is the first in a two week marathon to choose public officials for State and Federal governments of Nigeria. This Saturday voters are choosing members for the thirty-six state parliaments and thirty-six State Governors. There are at least two dozen contestants for every available post. There are over thirty political parties contesting.

The resources at the disposal of many of the states are bigger than the national budgets of a majority of the member states of the African Union. Therefore there is a lot at stake in these seemingly local elections. It is not surprising that most of the electoral violence tends to happen at these elections because it is the level at which the local elite is most visible and the unit with which they can legitimately access a bigger share of the nationally allocated oil revenues, second only to that of the Federal government. So if you do not control power at the centre doing so at state levels is the second choice with local government as a very distant, relatively poor, third option.

While at the Federal level the contest is narrowed to two main parties (usually the ruling party and whatever coalition of ‘eaters’ and other footloose opportunists it can coagulate around itself on the one hand, and a coalition of opposition parties directly or indirectly on the other), at the state level things are complicated by specific local conditions, personalities, historical memories and local rivalries. The party in power at the centre always had the advantage of ‘changing political facts’ locally through all kinds of uses and abuses of the powers of incumbency. Hence, in 2003 the ruling PDP went on a rampage claiming victory in more than two thirds of the states across the country mostly through blatant rigging, including of massive votes in states like most of the oil producing South-South states where there were successful boycotts of the polls. In Obasanjo’s home state, where he had lost his deposit even in his own family ward in 1999 (an election in which his own Yoruba people did not endorse his candidature which was seen as sponsored by the Hausa-Fulani north), PDP reversed the course by giving Obasanjo more votes than there were registered voters! An election petition later nullified the result but with no effect on the presidency. However in at least one state, Imo, the rigged results were overturned and the legitimate winning opposition party regained the governorship.

In two other states, Lagos and Kano (the two most populous, metropolitan and civically conscious) the leading opposition parties (AD and ANPP respectively) were sufficiently vigilant, and organized a balance of terror against the PDP to ensure that their victories were not stolen.

At Saturday’s elections the PDP may attempt to sweep everything again, but it is no longer as formidable as it may seem in spite of its control of the State machinery. One, its umbrella symbol is now so tattered that it no longer holds its various factions together. It is bitterly divided between Obasanjo loyalists and Atiku supporters and all kinds of anti-Baba PDP grandees. Those who did not defect with Atiku have gone to other parties. Two, related to this is the fact that Atiku’s group had control over most of the party and financial machinery used to rig the PDP to power, especially in 2003, therefore Obasanjo’s people do not have a monopoly over the manipulations. Hence the mortal fear of having Atiku on the ballot and risk having to contend with his counter-rigging infrastructure. Three, Obasanjo does not know how to make friends but a he is Field Marshall in manufacturing enemies. He has caused more disenchantment in his ranks through the whimsical way he had imposed governorship candidates in many states. In one state Obasanjo imposed the fourth-placed candidate! While in other states winning candidates’ names were substituted with Aso Rock favorites. Two of those who went to court to have the decision quashed were succesful. But rather than reinstate them Obasanjo’s party declared that they will not be contesting in the states and also expelled the victorious candidates in order to deny them a PDP platform. All these will militate against PDP at the state level.

By no means are the other parties any more democratic than the PDP and most of them will rig where they can and are able to.

What it all means is that this Saturday’s elections may be determined more by local factors than powers of incumbency whether at local or federal levels. The opposition parties may do better than feared. It may also be a spur for the opposition to unite against the PDP at next weekend’s presidential election, behind a candidate best placed to challenge the PDP candidate, Umar Musa Yar Adua, who remains the front runner.

“Forward ever , backward never”…..Kwame Nkrumah (1909 – 1972)

…………DON’T AGONISE!……………..ORGANISE!!…………..

This entry was posted on Thursday, April 12th, 2007 at 9:41 am and is filed under Thursday Postcard. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.